Black Friday sales are creeping earlier every year. According to The Independent, several major retailers launched their discounts in October last year, and the same pattern is expected in 2026.1 Lowe's has already announced it will start Black Friday deals on Oct. 29, four weeks before the main event, with 12 Days of Deals and December Deal Drops to follow.2, 3 Black Friday sales overall are projected to rise 9.2% from last year to $12.9 billion, with Cyber Week sales expected to grow 7.4% year over year to $47.5 billion, according to an Adobe analysis cited by Retail Dive.3
Is it better to buy now or wait for Black Friday?
For most categories, waiting for Black Friday is likely the better choice, but popular toys may be an exception. Brie Schwartz, editorial commerce director at Good Housekeeping, advises shoppers to hold off on TVs and large appliances unless they are urgently needed: "TVs, the big appliances, if you need something now, you'll still see decent discounts. But if you don't need a new TV, I would say hold off on that as well."4 That view is consistent with the basket data: Costco TVs have the most early cuts of any group tracked, 4 of 11 sets, but the median price change across those 11 products is still 0%, meaning most have not moved at all.
For toys, Schwartz recommends acting early: "If you see something at a good price that you know your kid will like, I wouldn't wait until Cyber Week," noting that popular items can sell out before the main event.4 The Independent's decade of Black Friday tracking supports waiting for big-ticket items, describing Black Friday as "the one shopping event I actually save for" that beats both January sales and Boxing Day deals.1 The definitive Black Friday price tracker test for this basket, comparing Black Friday prices against each product's 8-week low, arrives with the first cut on Nov. 24.
Which retailers cut prices earliest?
Among the three retailers in this basket, Costco is cutting prices earliest and most broadly, with 4 of its 11 tracked TVs already cheaper on Oct. 18 than on Oct. 5. Barnes & Noble and Lenovo show fewer early movers across their tracked products. Outside this basket, Lowe's is the most aggressive major retailer on timing, announcing that its Black Friday deals will begin Oct. 29, four weeks before Nov. 27.2, 3
The Independent notes that Currys and John Lewis both launched discounts on Oct. 30 last year, with Argos following on Oct. 31, and expects similar or earlier timing in 2026.1 For Costco Black Friday sales specifically, the early TV cuts suggest the warehouse club is again among the first to move on big-screen pricing, though stock levels at Costco are not readable in this tracker. Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days on Oct. 6 and 7 produced the widest single window of early savings in this basket, with 27 of 147 products cheaper on at least one of those two days.
How do this year's early deals compare with last year?
No source in this dataset provides a direct product-level comparison between early 2026 prices and early 2025 prices for this basket, so a precise year-over-year figure is not available. What the sources do describe is a clear directional trend: early deals are arriving sooner each year. The Independent reports that "year after year, deals seem to drop even earlier in advance of Black Friday itself," and that several retailers launched in October 2025.1 Lowe's is explicitly framing its Oct. 29 start as earlier than ever.2
On the demand side, Retail Dive notes that Black Friday sales are projected to rise 9.2% from last year to $12.9 billion, suggesting retailers have strong incentive to compete aggressively.3 Brie Schwartz of Good Housekeeping described October as having become "a lot more competitive" compared with prior years, when Cyber Week was the dominant savings window.4 For Barnes and Noble Black Friday and Lenovo, this tracker's 14-day window is too short to compare with 2025 baselines, but the broader retail picture points to earlier and more numerous pre-Black Friday cuts than in previous years.