Why is Halloween candy more expensive this year?
Candy prices are rising for two overlapping reasons: a cocoa shock that began in 2023 and a more recent surge in sugar costs. Extreme weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana sent cocoa prices from around $2,000 to $3,000 per tonne to nearly $12,000 per metric ton at the end of 2024, according to CNBC.2 Because chocolate makers hedge cocoa purchases months or years ahead, Ali Furman of PwC explained that shoppers are paying for that spike now, even though cocoa prices have since fallen by about half.1
Tariffs are adding pressure on top of the cocoa lag. Chris Costagli, the leader of food and beverage insights at NIQ, noted that chocolate comes from elsewhere, so tariffs being added onto it have increased costs that manufacturers are feeling.1 Now sugar is joining the squeeze: ICE raw sugar futures for March 2027 delivery closed at 21.13 cents per pound on Oct 15, up 34% from mid-July, according to 24/7 Wall St., with speculation that a super El Niño will disrupt global production.6 Halloween chocolate prices have jumped 15.5% to an average of $5.67 per package, according to PwC, while non-chocolate candy is up a more modest 1.8% to an average of $3.31.1
Who has the cheapest Halloween candy this season?
Among the three retailers we priced, Dollar General and Dollar Tree consistently undercut Walgreens on halloween candy prices. Dollar General beat Walgreens on 17 of 19 candies, at 28% less at the median, and Dollar Tree beat Walgreens on all 8 candies they share, at 26% less. The same fun-size bag of Snickers, Twix, M&M's Peanut, Milky Way or 3 Musketeers cost $7.99 at Walgreens and $5.95 at Dollar General, a difference of about $2 per bag.
The NRF found that discount stores are the most popular Halloween shopping destination, attracting 39% of shoppers, followed by specialty Halloween stores at 32% and online retailers at 27%.4 More than a third of consumers plan to compare prices if Halloween merchandise costs more than expected, and just over a quarter intend to look for coupons or sales.4 Within candy types, the non-chocolate aisle offers the steepest savings: Tootsie Rolls at 28 cents an ounce, Laffy Taffy at 29 cents and Twizzlers at 30 cents all cost far less than any chocolate on our list, where the median is 60 cents an ounce.
How is the cocoa shortage affecting the candy industry overall?
The cocoa shortage has pushed major chocolate makers to raise prices sharply, reduce cocoa content in some products and invest in alternatives. Cocoa futures hit an all-time high of roughly $12,000 per metric ton at the end of 2024, triggered by poor harvests in West Africa worsened by El Niño and climate change, according to CNBC.2 Lindt reported that groupwide price increases of 11.8% led chocolate sales volumes to drop 7.5% in the first half of the year, with CEO Adalbert Lechner citing record cocoa prices that required unprecedented price increases across the industry.2
Some manufacturers have responded by quietly reducing cocoa in their recipes. According to FoodNavigator, biscuits including Club and Penguins made by Pladis can no longer be described as chocolate because they contain more palm oil and shea oil than cocoa, and Nestlé's Toffee Crisp and Blue Riband bars face the same restriction.5 Ingredient suppliers are also selling products with 30% less cocoa but no perceptible loss of flavour, and Barry Callebaut has signed a long-term agreement with alt-chocolate maker Planet A Foods.5 Warren Patterson, ING's head of commodity strategy, said these are structural issues which are not going to be fixed quickly, and that prices will need to remain above historic norms to ensure adequate investment in supply.5
Will Halloween candy prices come down anytime soon?
A meaningful drop in Halloween candy prices looks unlikely before 2027 at the earliest, based on what major manufacturers have said publicly. On Hershey's Feb 5, 2026 earnings call, CEO Kirk Tanner told analysts that the 2025 pricing does not fully cover cocoa cost inflation in 2026, and CFO Steve Voskuil added that if cocoa prices simply stayed flat, there was more deflation to come in 2027.3 Cocoa futures have fallen roughly 57% from their December 2024 record, yet the BLS candy price index was still 8.1% higher in August 2026 than a year earlier and 13.7% higher than at the cocoa peak.3
The shelf price has at least stopped climbing: the BLS candy index was essentially flat from February to August 2026, according to Business Model Analyst.3 But a new cost pressure has emerged. Raw sugar futures surged 34% in about three months to Oct 15, 2026, and 24/7 Wall St. reported that if a strong El Niño hits India, Thailand and Brazil in the same crop season, high sugar costs could carry into 2027 candy prices.6 CNBC noted that Nestlé expects to see margins benefit from cocoa prices coming down, but Barry Callebaut and Nestlé have not mentioned lowering prices to consumers.2
Are Americans buying less candy because of rising prices?
Americans are still buying Halloween candy despite higher prices, though the record spending forecast may buy fewer pieces than last year. The National Retail Federation projects $4.1 billion in Halloween candy spending this year, up from $3.9 billion in 2025, with 96% of Halloween shoppers planning to purchase sweets.3, 4 But Business Model Analyst notes that deflating that increase by the 8.1% rise in candy prices suggests the record budget buys roughly 3% less candy than last year.3
Shoppers are adapting rather than opting out. The NRF found that the average person plans to spend $115.14 on Halloween purchases overall, little changed from last year's $114.45, and nearly half of consumers began shopping in September or earlier to spread out their budgets.4 NBC News spoke with consumers who said they were cutting back in other areas but not on Halloween candy, with one college student saying she still wants to give children the experience of getting Reese's Cups even though her budget is more tense.1 A halloween candy price comparison across stores, as our data shows, is one way shoppers are stretching that budget further.